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Research

What a suburb says about default

In some areas, 12 in every 10,000 adults go insolvent each year; in others, fewer than one. Education, housing and family make-up explain most of the gap. Crime and inequality explain little once those are known. Here is what raises the risk, what lowers it, and what a lender should do about it.

· 21 min read

General information, not legal or financial advice.

The short answer

  • Where. Across Australia, 3.9 in every 10,000 adults enter a personal insolvency each year. One area in ten is above 6.7; one in ten is below 1.7. Highest: Brighton (Tas), Browns Plains (Qld), Beenleigh (Qld), St Marys (NSW). Lowest: Cottesloe - Claremont (WA), Ku-ring-gai (NSW), Pittwater (NSW).
  • What guards against it. Education. Areas in the top fifth for graduates have 56% less insolvency than areas in the bottom fifth, even with everything else held equal. Their education level also came first, before insolvency changed: likely a cause. Owning a home outright guards too.
  • What raises it. Housing. Compared with owning outright, renting privately goes with 3.0 times the insolvency (top fifth of areas against bottom fifth, the rest held equal) and paying off a mortgage with 2.7 times; one-parent families add a little (1.3 times). Renting and mortgages came first, so they are probably part of the cause.
  • Income and inequality. Higher incomes go with less insolvency, but mostly through education and housing. Unequal areas have less insolvency, not more: at every income level, the most unequal third of areas has 37% to 57% less than the most equal third. With the rest held equal, inequality makes no clear difference.
  • Crime. Areas with the most violent crime have 2.3 times the insolvency of areas with the least; for non-violent crime it is 1.6 times. With the rest held equal the gaps shrink to 1.3 and 1.2 times, are clear only in New South Wales and add nothing to predictions. Rising crime goes with no extra insolvency, and neither crime nor insolvency clearly comes first.
  • Patterns. Risks stack up. Areas with high unemployment, few graduates, many renters and above-average crime have 1.7 times the national rate; areas with none of the four, about half of it.
  • Seven kinds of area. From Working suburbs and regional cities (1.4 times the national rate, 7.1 million people) to Established professional suburbs (0.5 times).
  • For lenders. Use area profiles to watch a portfolio, staff collections and check marketing, never to decline or price a person: a suburb screen would fall on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents 1.7 times as hard as on everyone else.

Rates: AFSA personal insolvencies without business involvement, July 2022 to June 2026, per 10,000 adults (ABS population). Area profiles: ABS Census 2021 and Personal Income in Australia 2022–23. Crime: state police and crime statistics agencies, July 2016 to June 2026. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.

What we measured

No one publishes loan default by suburb. The closest open measure is personal insolvency: people entering a bankruptcy, a debt agreement or a personal insolvency agreement. The Australian Financial Security Authority counts them every quarter for each ABS area of about 60,000 adults (an SA3). We use the 75% with no business involvement, the nearer stand-in for consumer credit.

Insolvency is the far end of default. Most missed payments end in a hardship arrangement, a repayment plan, collections or a write-off, and never reach it. People with few assets rarely file at all. So insolvency undercounts default where people are poorest, and rates in remote communities in particular understate hardship.

Personal insolvency fell by two-thirds in the pandemic and is only now rising

the years studied0510152007–082010–112013–142016–172019–202022–232025–2616.110.54.2Year to June. Insolvencies without business involvement per 10,000 adults.the years studied051015200820142020202616.110.54.2Year to June. Insolvencies without business involvement per 10,000 adults.
Australia, every SA3 area added up. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), September 2007 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
YearPer 10,000 adults
Year to June 200815.0
Year to June 200916.1
Year to June 201015.8
Year to June 201113.2
Year to June 201213.0
Year to June 201312.4
Year to June 201411.6
Year to June 201511.4
Year to June 201611.8
Year to June 201712.2
Year to June 201812.8
Year to June 201910.5
Year to June 20207.8
Year to June 20213.9
Year to June 20223.6
Year to June 20233.5
Year to June 20243.9
Year to June 20253.9
Year to June 20264.2

The national rate fell after 2019 as pandemic support, a higher bankruptcy threshold and debt agreement reforms took effect. Areas kept their order through it: an area’s rate in 2017–19 and in 2022–26 correlate at 0.88.

Where insolvency is high

Queensland (5.3) and Tasmania (5.2) have the highest rates; New South Wales 4.0, the Northern Territory 3.5, South Australia 3.4, Victoria 3.1, Western Australia 3.1 and the ACT 2.7 (per 10,000 adults a year). State differences are 15% of the variation between areas, so every comparison below is made within states.

Insolvency is highest on the outer edges of Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide, and in regional Queensland and Tasmania

  • Half or less
  • 0.5 to 0.7
  • 0.7 to 0.9
  • 0.9 to 1.1
  • 1.1 to 1.4
  • 1.4 to 2
  • Twice or more
  • Too few adults

Times the national rate of 3.9 insolvencies per 10,000 adults a year.

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Personal insolvencies without business involvement per 10,000 adults a year, July 2022 to June 2026, against the national rate of 3.9, for each ABS SA3 area. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS boundaries. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
All 330 areas, highest rate first
Area, highest rate firstStateRateTimes nationalArea typeMedian household incomeUnemploymentDegreeRentingGini
1. BrightonTas12.13.12Working suburbs and regional cities$1,3656.6%9%32%0.40
2. Browns PlainsQld11.02.84Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5977.4%12%39%0.40
3. BeenleighQld10.82.78Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4046.8%11%41%0.41
4. St MarysNSW10.72.75Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7245.7%14%35%0.40
5. CabooltureQld10.12.59Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4327.3%10%39%0.44
6. Springfield - RedbankQld9.62.46Working suburbs and regional cities$1,8546.9%18%44%0.41
7. PlayfordSA9.22.37Working suburbs and regional cities$1,2559.3%8%37%0.40
8. Mount DruittNSW9.22.37Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6377.4%18%41%0.41
9. North LakesQld8.62.21Working suburbs and regional cities$1,8605.6%20%43%0.41
10. Ipswich InnerQld8.42.17Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5496.5%15%37%0.42
11. Narangba - BurpengaryQld8.32.15Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6875.9%12%29%0.43
12. JimboombaQld8.32.14Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,1065.0%12%21%0.42
13. PenrithNSW8.12.09Working suburbs and regional cities$1,9714.2%19%33%0.42
14. Tamworth - GunnedahNSW8.12.08Older regional and coastal areas$1,4124.6%14%31%0.49
15. GladstoneQld7.92.03Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6397.4%12%34%0.48
16. Lithgow - MudgeeNSW7.92.02Older regional and coastal areas$1,3324.6%12%25%0.50
17. Campbelltown (NSW)NSW7.71.99Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7026.3%21%34%0.42
18. Springwood - KingstonQld7.61.96Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4438.8%17%40%0.44
19. MackayQld7.61.95Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8534.0%12%29%0.45
20. Upper HunterNSW7.51.94Older regional and coastal areas$1,5214.2%10%30%0.57
21. Central Highlands (Qld)Qld7.51.94Remote towns and mining regions$2,0543.7%11%44%0.51
22. Loganlea - CarbrookQld7.51.93Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6576.6%16%33%0.43
23. Burnie - UlverstoneTas7.51.92Older regional and coastal areas$1,1705.5%13%27%0.46
24. Lower HunterNSW7.41.90Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6044.8%11%26%0.47
25. Hobart - North WestTas7.41.90Working suburbs and regional cities$1,3097.2%20%35%0.40
26. DubboNSW7.31.87Older regional and coastal areas$1,4634.0%15%30%0.49
27. DevonportTas7.21.86Older regional and coastal areas$1,2175.4%13%26%0.46
28. RockhamptonQld7.21.86Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5125.3%14%29%0.46
29. TownsvilleQld7.21.84Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7015.1%18%37%0.43
30. MaitlandNSW7.01.79Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7924.5%16%30%0.44
31. StrathpineQld7.01.79Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6086.4%16%34%0.40
32. Forest Lake - OxleyQld6.91.77Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5867.5%21%42%0.43
33. Ormeau - OxenfordQld6.71.73Working suburbs and regional cities$1,9995.3%18%34%0.46
34. WyongNSW6.71.73Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4225.2%13%29%0.45
35. BundabergQld6.61.70Older regional and coastal areas$1,1706.7%12%28%0.49
36. Richmond - WindsorNSW6.61.70Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7673.8%14%34%0.43
37. Outback - NorthQld6.51.68Remote towns and mining regions$2,0064.4%12%48%0.46
38. ToowoombaQld6.51.67Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5025.0%20%33%0.47
39. Cairns - SouthQld6.51.66Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4696.4%17%40%0.45
40. Moree - NarrabriNSW6.51.66Older regional and coastal areas$1,5233.8%12%33%0.54
41. BeaudesertQld6.51.66Older regional and coastal areas$1,1996.1%9%34%0.47
42. Griffith - Murrumbidgee (West)NSW6.41.65Older regional and coastal areas$1,5353.4%12%30%0.47
43. OrangeNSW6.31.63Older regional and coastal areas$1,6653.4%20%29%0.49
44. LauncestonTas6.31.61Working suburbs and regional cities$1,3466.1%22%33%0.45
45. Goulburn - MulwareeNSW6.21.59Older regional and coastal areas$1,4494.1%14%27%0.47
46. Granite BeltQld6.21.58Older regional and coastal areas$1,1274.5%12%25%0.53
47. KwinanaWA6.21.58Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7166.9%17%28%0.41
48. MilduraVic6.11.58Older regional and coastal areas$1,3415.2%13%31%0.47
49. Darling Downs (West) - MaranoaQld6.01.55Older regional and coastal areas$1,4163.7%12%33%0.57
50. BathurstNSW6.01.55Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5684.0%18%30%0.46
51. GoldfieldsWA6.01.53Remote towns and mining regions$2,2004.0%12%39%0.43
52. RedcliffeQld6.01.53Older regional and coastal areas$1,3206.1%16%36%0.47
53. Wagga WaggaNSW5.91.53Older regional and coastal areas$1,4863.9%17%29%0.47
54. Bowen Basin - NorthQld5.91.52Remote towns and mining regions$2,0153.3%9%48%0.49
55. PalmerstonNT5.91.51Remote towns and mining regions$2,2004.2%18%46%0.38
56. Ipswich HinterlandQld5.71.46Older regional and coastal areas$1,4065.2%10%21%0.47
57. Taree - GloucesterNSW5.71.46Older regional and coastal areas$1,0926.5%12%24%0.50
58. AlburyNSW5.61.45Older regional and coastal areas$1,4284.5%18%32%0.46
59. RockinghamWA5.61.44Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7246.4%12%25%0.45
60. Tumut - TumbarumbaNSW5.61.43Older regional and coastal areas$1,3084.2%12%25%0.47
61. BiloelaQld5.51.41Older regional and coastal areas$1,7662.8%10%31%0.53
62. Bourke - Cobar - CoonambleNSW5.51.41Older regional and coastal areas$1,2894.9%10%32%0.61
63. Melton - Bacchus MarshVic5.41.40Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8736.2%21%23%0.42
64. Broken Hill and Far WestNSW5.41.40Older regional and coastal areas$1,1665.4%10%25%0.47
65. Rocklea - Acacia RidgeQld5.41.39Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,9415.9%32%31%0.44
66. BlacktownNSW5.31.37Working suburbs and regional cities$1,8876.2%28%37%0.43
67. WyndhamVic5.31.36Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,0146.8%32%32%0.43
68. Lachlan ValleyNSW5.31.36Older regional and coastal areas$1,2174.5%11%25%0.55
69. Bringelly - Green ValleyNSW5.31.36Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,1055.6%19%29%0.43
70. Casey - SouthVic5.31.35Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,9555.6%22%23%0.41
71. North EastTas5.21.35Older regional and coastal areas$1,1005.6%13%21%0.48
72. BurnettQld5.21.34Older regional and coastal areas$1,0216.0%9%25%0.55
73. Murray and MalleeSA5.21.33Older regional and coastal areas$1,1145.1%9%26%0.48
74. Dapto - Port KemblaNSW5.21.33Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4945.0%15%27%0.45
75. SouthportQld5.11.32Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4147.0%24%48%0.48
76. Inverell - TenterfieldNSW5.11.31Older regional and coastal areas$1,0206.2%11%24%0.56
77. MaryboroughQld5.01.29Older regional and coastal areas$1,0029.3%8%22%0.48
78. BallaratVic5.01.29Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4414.7%23%31%0.47
79. Darling Downs - EastQld5.01.28Older regional and coastal areas$1,3174.6%10%27%0.53
80. Wodonga - AlpineVic5.01.28Older regional and coastal areas$1,4613.4%18%26%0.46
81. Port Douglas - DaintreeQld4.91.27Older regional and coastal areas$1,3144.1%16%31%0.47
82. Mid NorthSA4.91.27Older regional and coastal areas$1,0476.3%9%25%0.48
83. Outback - SouthQld4.91.26Older regional and coastal areas$1,3442.7%11%32%0.54
84. Lake Macquarie - WestNSW4.91.26Older regional and coastal areas$1,5624.9%16%23%0.46
85. WhitsundayQld4.81.24Older regional and coastal areas$1,5744.0%14%33%0.47
86. SalisburySA4.81.24Working suburbs and regional cities$1,3647.4%15%29%0.41
87. ArmadaleWA4.81.24Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,7746.4%20%22%0.43
88. Far NorthQld4.81.23Remote communities$1,3659.1%9%59%0.51
89. Central Highlands (Tas.)Tas4.81.23Older regional and coastal areas$1,2675.5%10%13%0.46
90. CapalabaQld4.81.22Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,9174.3%20%22%0.46
91. Hervey BayQld4.81.22Older regional and coastal areas$1,1067.9%13%27%0.49
92. Innisfail - Cassowary CoastQld4.81.22Older regional and coastal areas$1,2116.7%10%32%0.50
93. WollondillyNSW4.81.22Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,0933.0%14%17%0.45
94. Clarence ValleyNSW4.71.22Older regional and coastal areas$1,1266.2%12%24%0.50
95. Gold Coast - NorthQld4.71.22Older regional and coastal areas$1,3316.1%19%35%0.49
96. Kiama - ShellharbourNSW4.71.21Older regional and coastal areas$1,6894.1%18%25%0.47
97. Port MacquarieNSW4.71.21Older regional and coastal areas$1,2644.8%17%27%0.50
98. Upper Goulburn ValleyVic4.71.20Older regional and coastal areas$1,3283.7%15%19%0.49
99. ShoalhavenNSW4.71.20Older regional and coastal areas$1,2484.9%16%25%0.49
100. Young - YassNSW4.71.20Older regional and coastal areas$1,5963.5%19%20%0.53
101. SandgateQld4.61.19Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7365.1%25%32%0.43
102. LiverpoolNSW4.61.18Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7706.7%23%40%0.43
103. MoiraVic4.61.17Older regional and coastal areas$1,1923.5%10%21%0.49
104. Upper Murray exc. AlburyNSW4.51.17Older regional and coastal areas$1,2083.3%11%21%0.52
105. Wangaratta - BenallaVic4.51.17Older regional and coastal areas$1,2843.0%16%22%0.48
106. BendigoVic4.51.16Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4354.3%20%30%0.45
107. Port StephensNSW4.51.16Older regional and coastal areas$1,3385.1%14%25%0.49
108. FrankstonVic4.51.15Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6534.6%19%28%0.43
109. SheppartonVic4.51.15Older regional and coastal areas$1,3984.6%15%29%0.47
110. Kempsey - NambuccaNSW4.41.14Older regional and coastal areas$1,0377.0%11%24%0.53
111. GeelongVic4.41.12Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5864.7%24%31%0.46
112. Serpentine - JarrahdaleWA4.31.12Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,0963.9%13%13%0.44
113. NerangQld4.31.11Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,7835.1%18%26%0.45
114. SwanWA4.31.11Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8585.3%17%22%0.44
115. BunburyWA4.31.11Older regional and coastal areas$1,5505.0%13%25%0.47
116. Hobart - North EastTas4.31.11Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6015.2%26%23%0.44
117. Latrobe ValleyVic4.31.10Older regional and coastal areas$1,2596.6%13%26%0.47
118. NundahQld4.21.09Working suburbs and regional cities$1,9854.5%32%41%0.43
119. Surfers ParadiseQld4.21.09Inner-city apartment areas$1,4666.4%26%42%0.56
120. Bribie - BeachmereQld4.21.08Older regional and coastal areas$1,0336.4%12%22%0.51
121. Merrylands - GuildfordNSW4.21.08Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5018.2%20%41%0.46
122. GrampiansVic4.21.07Older regional and coastal areas$1,2423.3%13%21%0.50
123. Limestone CoastSA4.21.07Older regional and coastal areas$1,3163.6%11%25%0.47
124. Blacktown - NorthNSW4.21.07Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,7224.4%40%27%0.42
125. Charters Towers - Ayr - InghamQld4.21.07Older regional and coastal areas$1,2644.3%9%28%0.48
126. Gawler - Two WellsSA4.11.07Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4924.9%12%22%0.41
127. CamdenNSW4.11.06Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,3343.0%19%22%0.43
128. GosfordNSW4.11.06Older regional and coastal areas$1,6154.3%22%27%0.50
129. Darwin SuburbsNT4.11.06Remote towns and mining regions$2,1484.5%30%42%0.43
130. Casey - NorthVic4.11.06Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8505.8%22%24%0.48
131. Whittlesea - WallanVic4.11.05Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,7905.8%23%25%0.42
132. SunnybankQld4.11.05Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7636.8%33%34%0.48
133. Tullamarine - BroadmeadowsVic4.11.04Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6588.2%21%27%0.43
134. Great LakesNSW4.01.04Older regional and coastal areas$1,0145.7%12%23%0.53
135. NambourQld4.01.04Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,5344.8%18%23%0.47
136. Coffs HarbourNSW4.01.02Older regional and coastal areas$1,3365.3%19%29%0.49
137. CampaspeVic4.01.02Older regional and coastal areas$1,2673.5%12%22%0.48
138. Wheat Belt - NorthWA4.01.02Older regional and coastal areas$1,3494.5%10%20%0.51
139. OnkaparingaSA3.91.01Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4145.5%17%23%0.42
140. RobinaQld3.91.00Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7025.0%25%36%0.47
141. Port Adelaide - WestSA3.90.99Working suburbs and regional cities$1,3846.4%20%34%0.42
142. LitchfieldNT3.90.99Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,3403.5%12%18%0.41
143. Lake Macquarie - EastNSW3.80.99Older regional and coastal areas$1,6554.4%21%24%0.47
144. SunburyVic3.80.99Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,9394.5%19%21%0.42
145. Meander Valley - West TamarTas3.80.98Older regional and coastal areas$1,2115.3%15%17%0.48
146. Eyre Peninsula and South WestSA3.80.98Older regional and coastal areas$1,2455.2%11%32%0.47
147. Wynnum - ManlyQld3.80.97Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,1004.1%27%29%0.45
148. TuggeranongACT3.80.97Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,3053.6%29%21%0.40
149. Gympie - CooloolaQld3.70.96Older regional and coastal areas$1,1155.9%10%22%0.51
150. QueanbeyanNSW3.70.96Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,2903.1%28%26%0.42
151. FairfieldNSW3.70.95Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4118.5%13%38%0.46
152. MandurahWA3.70.94Older regional and coastal areas$1,2866.9%12%25%0.50
153. Cairns - NorthQld3.70.94Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8194.6%24%29%0.45
154. WannerooWA3.70.94Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8925.7%17%22%0.44
155. Richmond Valley - HinterlandNSW3.60.94Older regional and coastal areas$1,2245.1%17%26%0.49
156. Gippsland - EastVic3.60.93Older regional and coastal areas$1,1094.4%14%20%0.49
157. NewcastleNSW3.60.93Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7404.9%28%36%0.48
158. Tweed ValleyNSW3.60.93Older regional and coastal areas$1,2965.0%18%25%0.50
159. CanterburyNSW3.60.92Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5247.6%25%41%0.47
160. Cleveland - StradbrokeQld3.60.92Older regional and coastal areas$1,6924.5%18%23%0.48
161. Sorell - Dodges FerryTas3.60.92Older regional and coastal areas$1,4084.6%16%18%0.42
162. Mid WestWA3.60.92Older regional and coastal areas$1,4554.9%11%28%0.48
163. BankstownNSW3.60.92Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5957.0%22%35%0.47
164. Brisbane Inner - NorthQld3.60.92Inner-city apartment areas$2,1534.2%46%52%0.53
165. CardiniaVic3.50.91Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8744.3%19%23%0.43
166. Lower MurrayNSW3.50.91Older regional and coastal areas$1,3514.0%10%23%0.52
167. South CoastNSW3.50.90Older regional and coastal areas$1,1833.8%18%22%0.50
168. West CoastTas3.50.90Older regional and coastal areas$1,2105.6%11%22%0.47
169. GosnellsWA3.50.90Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6566.8%20%25%0.44
170. CaloundraQld3.50.89Older regional and coastal areas$1,5464.6%21%30%0.49
171. ChermsideQld3.50.89Established professional suburbs$1,9384.5%33%38%0.46
172. Lower NorthSA3.50.89Older regional and coastal areas$1,1444.3%12%20%0.51
173. Gippsland - South WestVic3.40.89Older regional and coastal areas$1,2023.5%17%19%0.51
174. HawkesburyNSW3.40.88Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,2302.8%17%12%0.47
175. BrimbankVic3.40.87Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4948.1%20%28%0.43
176. WellingtonVic3.40.87Older regional and coastal areas$1,2734.7%14%21%0.53
177. Mt GravattQld3.40.87Established professional suburbs$2,0055.9%38%33%0.48
178. Sunshine Coast HinterlandQld3.40.87Older regional and coastal areas$1,6304.4%20%18%0.49
179. ParramattaNSW3.40.86Inner-city apartment areas$2,0606.2%44%51%0.44
180. Murray River - Swan HillVic3.30.86Older regional and coastal areas$1,2313.5%11%24%0.51
181. Tablelands (East) - KurandaQld3.30.85Older regional and coastal areas$1,2175.5%14%26%0.52
182. East PilbaraWA3.30.85Remote towns and mining regions$2,7643.6%11%70%0.43
183. Baw BawVic3.30.84Older regional and coastal areas$1,4973.8%17%19%0.47
184. Wheat Belt - SouthWA3.30.84Older regional and coastal areas$1,3723.8%11%23%0.50
185. Outback - North and EastSA3.30.84Remote towns and mining regions$1,3936.9%10%42%0.47
186. Hobsons BayVic3.20.83Established professional suburbs$2,0065.0%32%29%0.47
187. GungahlinACT3.20.83Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,5373.8%43%33%0.41
188. Kogarah - RockdaleNSW3.20.83Inner-city apartment areas$1,9235.7%33%39%0.47
189. NoosaQld3.20.82Older regional and coastal areas$1,5654.2%25%27%0.57
190. Belmont - Victoria ParkWA3.20.81Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7585.2%31%45%0.45
191. Richmond Valley - CoastalNSW3.20.81Older regional and coastal areas$1,4614.2%25%29%0.55
192. Bayswater - BassendeanWA3.10.80Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7375.1%29%31%0.45
193. WarrnamboolVic3.10.80Older regional and coastal areas$1,4512.9%19%24%0.48
194. Caboolture HinterlandQld3.10.80Older regional and coastal areas$1,4824.2%11%17%0.49
195. Dural - Wisemans FerryNSW3.10.80Established professional suburbs$2,5413.1%27%13%0.58
196. KimberleyWA3.10.79Remote communities$1,7626.1%16%62%0.47
197. ManjimupWA3.00.78Older regional and coastal areas$1,2363.9%13%20%0.52
198. Broadbeach - BurleighQld3.00.77Established professional suburbs$1,7384.5%26%34%0.52
199. Glenelg - Southern GrampiansVic3.00.77Older regional and coastal areas$1,2363.7%13%20%0.51
200. Bald Hills - Everton ParkQld3.00.77Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,2223.9%33%28%0.46
201. MaribyrnongVic3.00.76Inner-city apartment areas$1,9985.7%41%43%0.46
202. The Gap - EnoggeraQld3.00.76Established professional suburbs$2,2574.2%37%30%0.46
203. MaroochyQld2.90.75Established professional suburbs$1,4994.3%23%36%0.50
204. Alice SpringsNT2.90.75Remote towns and mining regions$1,8985.1%21%50%0.45
205. CockburnWA2.90.75Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,9884.8%24%26%0.44
206. West PilbaraWA2.90.75Remote towns and mining regions$3,1142.7%14%65%0.43
207. AuburnNSW2.90.74Inner-city apartment areas$1,7988.2%33%50%0.46
208. Port Adelaide - EastSA2.90.74Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5556.2%30%37%0.42
209. BuderimQld2.90.74Established professional suburbs$1,7394.3%25%26%0.49
210. BelconnenACT2.90.74Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,2274.2%40%30%0.42
211. Gold Coast HinterlandQld2.90.74Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,7433.8%22%13%0.50
212. Moreland - NorthVic2.90.74Working suburbs and regional cities$1,7955.6%32%33%0.43
213. Creswick - Daylesford - BallanVic2.80.73Older regional and coastal areas$1,4543.6%22%13%0.52
214. Loddon - ElmoreVic2.80.72Older regional and coastal areas$1,1754.5%11%12%0.51
215. Rouse Hill - McGraths HillNSW2.80.72Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,9643.7%35%22%0.45
216. DandenongVic2.80.71Working suburbs and regional cities$1,4936.9%23%34%0.44
217. AlbanyWA2.80.71Older regional and coastal areas$1,3233.8%15%25%0.51
218. Southern HighlandsNSW2.70.71Older regional and coastal areas$1,6733.0%26%20%0.56
219. Colac - CorangamiteVic2.70.70Older regional and coastal areas$1,2712.7%14%20%0.50
220. BotanyNSW2.70.70Inner-city apartment areas$2,0645.2%35%50%0.46
221. Maryborough - PyreneesVic2.70.70Older regional and coastal areas$1,0274.8%11%16%0.50
222. Yorke PeninsulaSA2.70.70Older regional and coastal areas$9826.1%8%21%0.52
223. Tea Tree GullySA2.70.69Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,6314.5%21%18%0.42
224. WollongongNSW2.70.69Established professional suburbs$1,7964.8%30%34%0.49
225. Holland Park - YerongaQld2.70.69Inner-city apartment areas$2,0324.8%45%48%0.49
226. Charles SturtSA2.70.69Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5604.9%26%32%0.45
227. Noosa HinterlandQld2.70.69Older regional and coastal areas$1,4964.5%20%13%0.53
228. KalamundaWA2.70.69Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8664.6%20%17%0.47
229. Fleurieu - Kangaroo IslandSA2.70.69Older regional and coastal areas$1,0784.7%15%19%0.51
230. Mudgeeraba - TallebudgeraQld2.70.68Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,1414.6%23%18%0.50
231. CarindaleQld2.60.68Established professional suburbs$2,3163.9%39%29%0.48
232. Adelaide CitySA2.60.68Inner-city apartment areas$1,4739.3%46%60%0.58
233. Holdfast BaySA2.60.68Established professional suburbs$1,6093.8%33%30%0.52
234. EssendonVic2.60.67Inner-city apartment areas$2,0464.6%43%41%0.50
235. KnoxVic2.60.67Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8844.4%28%22%0.45
236. Surf Coast - Bellarine PeninsulaVic2.60.67Older regional and coastal areas$1,7703.3%29%20%0.51
237. Snowy MountainsNSW2.60.66Older regional and coastal areas$1,5622.8%19%25%0.49
238. The Hills DistrictQld2.50.66Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,4173.6%28%16%0.46
239. MarionSA2.50.65Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5555.1%28%30%0.42
240. NathanQld2.50.64Established professional suburbs$2,0625.2%40%34%0.47
241. CoolangattaQld2.50.64Established professional suburbs$1,6354.5%23%31%0.49
242. HurstvilleNSW2.50.64Established professional suburbs$1,9065.3%33%35%0.49
243. ArmidaleNSW2.50.64Older regional and coastal areas$1,3834.9%25%31%0.51
244. Sydney Inner CityNSW2.40.63Inner-city apartment areas$2,2225.5%53%65%0.55
245. Mornington PeninsulaVic2.40.62Older regional and coastal areas$1,5553.3%21%19%0.54
246. Stonnington - WestVic2.40.62Inner-city apartment areas$2,1413.8%54%53%0.60
247. Brisbane InnerQld2.40.62Inner-city apartment areas$1,9226.1%47%65%0.55
248. BarossaSA2.40.61Older regional and coastal areas$1,4793.5%14%16%0.46
249. Cronulla - Miranda - CaringbahNSW2.40.61Established professional suburbs$2,1883.2%28%27%0.52
250. Marrickville - Sydenham - PetershamNSW2.40.61Inner-city apartment areas$2,2764.4%46%46%0.47
251. CarlingfordNSW2.30.60Established professional suburbs$1,9975.1%38%36%0.49
252. Darebin - NorthVic2.30.59Working suburbs and regional cities$1,6686.0%33%38%0.44
253. East ArnhemNT2.20.58Remote communities$1,94114.2%9%74%0.62
254. KingstonVic2.20.58Established professional suburbs$1,9654.0%32%25%0.47
255. Hobart - South and WestTas2.20.57Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,7155.2%34%22%0.46
256. Daly - Tiwi - West ArnhemNT2.20.57Remote communities$1,16717.9%7%59%0.54
257. Darwin CityNT2.20.57Inner-city apartment areas$2,2573.3%38%63%0.44
258. Perth CityWA2.20.57Inner-city apartment areas$2,0934.3%48%47%0.53
259. KeilorVic2.20.57Established professional suburbs$1,9354.5%27%20%0.48
260. Port PhillipVic2.20.57Inner-city apartment areas$2,0694.5%49%52%0.54
261. Brisbane Inner - EastQld2.20.56Inner-city apartment areas$2,4693.9%44%42%0.52
262. Norwood - Payneham - St PetersSA2.20.55Established professional suburbs$1,6645.0%42%37%0.51
263. MolongloACT2.10.55Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,7343.2%55%26%0.38
264. Heathcote - Castlemaine - KynetonVic2.10.55Older regional and coastal areas$1,4923.5%27%14%0.51
265. Eastern Suburbs - SouthNSW2.10.55Inner-city apartment areas$2,3054.3%43%47%0.55
266. Huon - Bruny IslandTas2.10.54Older regional and coastal areas$1,2395.3%22%15%0.50
267. Campbelltown (SA)SA2.10.53Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5965.0%32%27%0.45
268. Sutherland - Menai - HeathcoteNSW2.10.53Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,3973.0%28%18%0.46
269. Prospect - WalkervilleSA2.10.53Established professional suburbs$2,0154.1%41%33%0.52
270. North CanberraACT2.10.53Inner-city apartment areas$2,3414.4%54%45%0.45
271. CanningWA2.10.53Established professional suburbs$1,8005.9%34%32%0.48
272. MaroondahVic2.10.53Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8654.0%30%25%0.45
273. Yarra RangesVic2.00.52Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8823.5%21%14%0.46
274. GascoyneWA2.00.52Remote towns and mining regions$1,5523.7%14%42%0.49
275. Pennant Hills - EppingNSW2.00.52Established professional suburbs$2,4365.0%53%31%0.53
276. South East CoastTas2.00.51Older regional and coastal areas$9565.3%17%19%0.51
277. Barwon - WestVic2.00.51Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,9742.6%19%10%0.48
278. LeichhardtNSW2.00.51Established professional suburbs$2,9193.8%53%40%0.54
279. BanyuleVic2.00.51Established professional suburbs$2,0274.3%38%26%0.49
280. Ryde - Hunters HillNSW2.00.51Inner-city apartment areas$2,1364.9%46%41%0.54
281. MundaringWA2.00.51Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8384.5%18%13%0.48
282. Melbourne CityVic2.00.50Inner-city apartment areas$1,6777.6%54%68%0.56
283. Blue MountainsNSW1.90.50Established professional suburbs$1,7563.9%33%18%0.48
284. Chatswood - Lane CoveNSW1.90.50Inner-city apartment areas$2,6434.1%55%39%0.58
285. West TorrensSA1.90.49Working suburbs and regional cities$1,5914.7%32%37%0.44
286. HornsbyNSW1.90.48Established professional suburbs$2,2954.0%44%28%0.48
287. Weston CreekACT1.90.48Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,3773.6%43%21%0.44
288. Macedon RangesVic1.90.48Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,1833.1%25%12%0.49
289. JoondalupWA1.80.47Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,1664.4%27%16%0.48
290. Hobart InnerTas1.80.47Established professional suburbs$1,8407.0%49%36%0.51
291. StirlingWA1.80.47Established professional suburbs$1,7844.6%33%32%0.49
292. Strathfield - Burwood - AshfieldNSW1.80.46Inner-city apartment areas$2,0465.8%43%46%0.50
293. Canada BayNSW1.80.46Inner-city apartment areas$2,3803.9%43%37%0.53
294. Woden ValleyACT1.80.45Established professional suburbs$2,3753.6%50%31%0.46
295. EsperanceWA1.70.44Older regional and coastal areas$1,5382.7%12%29%0.51
296. North Sydney - MosmanNSW1.70.44Inner-city apartment areas$2,6173.5%58%47%0.60
297. Eastern Suburbs - NorthNSW1.70.44Inner-city apartment areas$2,9843.6%54%44%0.67
298. KatherineNT1.70.43Remote communities$1,7048.1%12%61%0.47
299. WarringahNSW1.70.43Established professional suburbs$2,4713.2%36%28%0.54
300. MitchamSA1.70.43Established professional suburbs$1,9904.2%40%18%0.50
301. Augusta - Margaret River - BusseltonWA1.70.43Older regional and coastal areas$1,4773.0%19%24%0.51
302. Kenmore - Brookfield - MoggillQld1.70.42Established professional suburbs$2,8214.3%48%13%0.54
303. South PerthWA1.60.42Established professional suburbs$2,0044.5%43%37%0.54
304. Manningham - WestVic1.60.41Established professional suburbs$1,8105.5%39%23%0.54
305. Glen EiraVic1.60.41Established professional suburbs$2,1294.2%46%34%0.52
306. Adelaide HillsSA1.60.41Outer-suburban mortgage belts$1,8953.5%28%16%0.49
307. Stonnington - EastVic1.60.40Established professional suburbs$2,3744.6%51%32%0.59
308. FremantleWA1.60.40Established professional suburbs$1,9554.6%40%31%0.53
309. Darebin - SouthVic1.60.40Established professional suburbs$2,1414.2%51%39%0.48
310. South CanberraACT1.60.40Inner-city apartment areas$2,7112.9%58%38%0.49
311. Sherwood - IndooroopillyQld1.50.39Inner-city apartment areas$2,0786.3%50%41%0.56
312. YarraVic1.50.38Inner-city apartment areas$2,2703.8%56%54%0.50
313. Whitehorse - EastVic1.50.38Established professional suburbs$1,9314.8%40%24%0.48
314. UnleySA1.40.37Established professional suburbs$1,9994.3%47%31%0.54
315. Brunswick - CoburgVic1.40.37Inner-city apartment areas$2,0494.6%49%43%0.45
316. MonashVic1.40.36Established professional suburbs$1,8945.9%41%30%0.51
317. Brisbane Inner - WestQld1.40.36Inner-city apartment areas$2,3864.2%53%42%0.55
318. Baulkham HillsNSW1.40.35Established professional suburbs$2,7324.3%43%20%0.51
319. CentenaryQld1.40.35Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,3334.2%39%18%0.48
320. Nillumbik - KinglakeVic1.30.34Outer-suburban mortgage belts$2,4273.5%31%9%0.49
321. BurnsideSA1.20.32Established professional suburbs$2,0694.3%48%22%0.56
322. Whitehorse - WestVic1.20.31Established professional suburbs$1,7905.7%43%32%0.53
323. MelvilleWA1.20.31Established professional suburbs$2,1044.5%38%21%0.54
324. BaysideVic1.20.30Established professional suburbs$2,4873.9%44%23%0.60
325. ManlyNSW1.20.30Inner-city apartment areas$3,2723.4%52%36%0.61
326. Manningham - EastVic1.10.27Established professional suburbs$2,4494.2%35%11%0.56
327. BoroondaraVic1.00.27Established professional suburbs$2,3764.3%52%29%0.60
328. PittwaterNSW0.90.24Established professional suburbs$2,5123.2%33%17%0.60
329. Ku-ring-gaiNSW0.90.22Established professional suburbs$3,0374.2%54%20%0.61
330. Cottesloe - ClaremontWA0.60.16Established professional suburbs$2,7904.5%53%26%0.74

The highest rates are in outer suburbs of Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide, and in Hobart’s Brighton

04812Australia 3.9The 10 highestBrighton (Tas)12.1Browns Plains (Qld)11.0Beenleigh (Qld)10.8St Marys (NSW)10.7Caboolture (Qld)10.1Springfield - Redbank (Qld)9.6Playford (SA)9.2Mount Druitt (NSW)9.2North Lakes (Qld)8.6Ipswich Inner (Qld)8.4The 10 lowestCottesloe - Claremont (WA)0.6Ku-ring-gai (NSW)0.9Pittwater (NSW)0.9Boroondara (Vic)1.0Manningham - East (Vic)1.1Manly (NSW)1.2Bayside (Vic)1.2Melville (WA)1.2Whitehorse - West (Vic)1.2Burnside (SA)1.204812Australia 3.9The 10 highestBrighton (Tas)12.1Browns Plains (Qld)11.0Beenleigh (Qld)10.8St Marys (NSW)10.7Caboolture (Qld)10.1Springfield - Redbank (Qld)9.6Playford (SA)9.2Mount Druitt (NSW)9.2North Lakes (Qld)8.6Ipswich Inner (Qld)8.4The 10 lowestCottesloe - Claremont (WA)0.6Ku-ring-gai (NSW)0.9Pittwater (NSW)0.9Boroondara (Vic)1.0Manningham - East (Vic)1.1Manly (NSW)1.2Bayside (Vic)1.2Melville (WA)1.2Whitehorse - West (Vic)1.2Burnside (SA)1.2
Insolvencies without business involvement per 10,000 adults a year, July 2022 to June 2026. Areas with 5,000 adults or more. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
AreaStateRateTimes nationalMedian household incomeArea type
BrightonTas12.13.12$1,365Working suburbs and regional cities
Browns PlainsQld11.02.84$1,597Working suburbs and regional cities
BeenleighQld10.82.78$1,404Working suburbs and regional cities
St MarysNSW10.72.75$1,724Working suburbs and regional cities
CabooltureQld10.12.59$1,432Working suburbs and regional cities
Springfield - RedbankQld9.62.46$1,854Working suburbs and regional cities
PlayfordSA9.22.37$1,255Working suburbs and regional cities
Mount DruittNSW9.22.37$1,637Working suburbs and regional cities
North LakesQld8.62.21$1,860Working suburbs and regional cities
Ipswich InnerQld8.42.17$1,549Working suburbs and regional cities
Cottesloe - ClaremontWA0.60.16$2,790Established professional suburbs
Ku-ring-gaiNSW0.90.22$3,037Established professional suburbs
PittwaterNSW0.90.24$2,512Established professional suburbs
BoroondaraVic1.00.27$2,376Established professional suburbs
Manningham - EastVic1.10.27$2,449Established professional suburbs
ManlyNSW1.20.30$3,272Inner-city apartment areas
BaysideVic1.20.30$2,487Established professional suburbs
MelvilleWA1.20.31$2,104Established professional suburbs
Whitehorse - WestVic1.20.31$1,790Established professional suburbs
BurnsideSA1.20.32$2,069Established professional suburbs

What raises the risk, and what lowers it

Each factor below gets a plain verdict: raises the risk, lowers the risk or no clear effect once other things are equal. A verdict is firm when it also holds in at least three of four checks: weighting every area equally, comparing capitals and the rest of each state separately, adding neighbouring areas’ profiles, and counting business-related insolvencies too.

Education and owning a home outright guard against insolvency; renting, mortgages and one-parent families go with more of it

  • On its own
  • With the rest held equal: raises the risk
  • Lowers the risk
  • No clear effect
  • 95% range
  • Pale: not firm
a quarterhalfsamedouble4 timesInsolvency in the top fifth of areas against the bottom fifthMoneyMedian household incomeLowers, weaklyIncome inequalityNo clear effectLow-income householdsNo clear effectWork and educationUnemploymentNo clear effectAdults with a degreeLowersFinished Year 12LowersHousing (compared with owning outright)Renting privatelyRaisesPaying off a mortgageRaisesSocial housingRaisesFlats and apartmentsLowersFamily and ageOne-parent familiesRaisesAdults aged 18 to 34No clear effectPeople aged 65 and overNo clear effectPlaceRemotenessRaises, weaklyPopulation growthNo clear effectCrime (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia)Violent crimeRaisesNon-violent crimeRaisesViolent crime risingNo clear effectNon-violent crime risingNo clear effecta quarterhalfsamedouble4 timesInsolvency in the top fifth of areas against the bottom fifthMoneyMedian household income · Lowers, weaklyIncome inequality · No clear effectLow-income households · No clear effectWork and educationUnemployment · No clear effectAdults with a degree · LowersFinished Year 12 · LowersHousing (against owning outright)Renting privately · RaisesPaying off a mortgage · RaisesSocial housing · RaisesFlats and apartments · LowersFamily and ageOne-parent families · RaisesAdults aged 18 to 34 · No clear effectPeople aged 65 and over · No clear effectPlaceRemoteness · Raises, weaklyPopulation growth · No clear effectCrime (four states)Violent crime · RaisesNon-violent crime · RaisesViolent crime rising · No clear effectNon-violent crime rising · No clear effect
Each dot compares the fifth of areas with the most of a factor against the fifth with the least. "With the rest held equal" compares areas alike in median income, inequality, unemployment, education, housing, family make-up, age and remoteness, within each state. Crime rows: the four states with suburb crime data. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; ABS Personal Income in Australia, 2022–23; NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Queensland Police Service and South Australia Police. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
FactorTop fifth against bottom fifthOn its ownRest held equal95% rangeVerdictChecks it holds in
Median household incomemedian household income $2,340 a week against $1,21449% lower30% lower48% lower to sameMay lower the risk (not firm)0 of 4
Income inequalitya Gini coefficient of 0.54 against 0.4256% lowerabout the same15% lower to 1.1×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4
Low-income households33% against 15%1.4 times the rate8% lower43% lower to 1.5×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4
Unemployment7% against 3%1.7 times the rate9% lower20% lower to sameNo clear effect once other things are equal3 of 4
Adults with a degree46% against 11%65% lower56% lower66% lower to 42% lowerLowers the risk4 of 4
Finished Year 1279% against 40%60% lower67% lower78% lower to 52% lowerLowers the risk4 of 4
Renting privately38% against 16%1.3 times the rate3.0 times the rate2.3× to 3.9×Raises the risk4 of 4
Paying off a mortgage46% against 25%1.3 times the rate2.7 times the rate2.0× to 3.7×Raises the risk4 of 4
Social housing7% against 1%1.4 times the rate1.1 times the ratesame to 1.3×Raises the risk3 of 4
Flats and apartments35% against 1%44% lower31% lower41% lower to 20% lowerLowers the risk4 of 4
One-parent families20% against 12%2.9 times the rate1.3 times the rate1.2× to 1.5×Raises the risk4 of 4
Adults aged 18 to 3436% against 20%1.1 times the rate5% lower29% lower to 1.3×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4
People aged 65 and over26% against 11%13% lower1.2 times the rate15% lower to 1.8×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4
Remotenessremote or outer regional against city1.7 times the rate1.2 times the ratesame to 1.5×May raise the risk (not firm)1 of 4
Population growthgrowth of 16% against 1% in five years1.4 times the rateabout the same5% lower to 1.1×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4
Violent crimeviolent crime 1.9 times its state's average against 0.5 times2.3 times the rate1.3 times the rate1.1× to 1.5×Raises the risk4 of 4
Non-violent crimenon-violent crime 1.7 times its state's average against 0.5 times1.6 times the rate1.2 times the rate1.1× to 1.4×Raises the risk4 of 4
Violent crime risingviolent crime up 24% against down 17%, beside its state's change1.2 times the rate1.1 times the ratesame to 1.2×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4
Non-violent crime risingnon-violent crime up 21% against down 16%, beside its state's change8% lowerabout the same7% lower to 1.2×No clear effect once other things are equal4 of 4

The Census profile explains 86% of the differences in insolvency between areas, and 82% for areas the model had not seen.

Cause or companion

FactorVerdict, rest held equalTop fifth against bottomCause or companion?
Median household incomeMay lower it (weak)30% lowerGoes with it, weaklyno sign either came first
Income inequalityNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
Low-income householdsNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
UnemploymentNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
Adults with a degreeLowers the risk56% lowerLikely a causeit changed first, then insolvency followed
Finished Year 12Lowers the risk67% lowerGoes with ittiming not tested
Renting privatelyRaises the risk3.0 timesProbably part of the causeit changed first in one test of two
Paying off a mortgageRaises the risk2.7 timesProbably part of the causeit changed first in one test of two
Social housingRaises the risk1.1 timesProbably part of the causeit changed first in one test of two
Flats and apartmentsLowers the risk31% lowerGoes with ittiming not tested
One-parent familiesRaises the risk1.3 timesGoes with itno sign either came first
Adults aged 18 to 34No clear effectwithin chanceNeither
People aged 65 and overNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
RemotenessMay raise it (weak)1.2 timesGoes with it, weaklytiming not tested
Population growthNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
Violent crimeRaises the risk1.3 timesGoes with itno sign either came first
Non-violent crimeRaises the risk1.2 timesGoes with it, and may follow insolvencyinsolvency came first
Violent crime risingNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
Non-violent crime risingNo clear effectwithin chanceNeither
  • Education guards most, and comes first. At the same income, housing and family make-up, areas with more graduates have far less insolvency. Areas with more graduates in 2016 saw insolvency fall further: by 2022–26 the top fifth had 31% less insolvency than the bottom fifth, holding where each started. Insolvency did not come before changes in education.
  • Owning outright guards; renting and mortgages raise the risk. The housing figures compare renting or a mortgage with owning outright: equity is a buffer that renters and new buyers lack. Renting looks safe on its own, because inner-city renters are mostly graduates; among areas alike in education and the rest, it is the largest risk. Both came before later rises in insolvency in the main timing test, though not in a stricter one.
  • Unemployment, low incomes and inequality go with insolvency only through education and housing. Areas with high unemployment have 1.7 times the insolvency of low-unemployment areas, but the same jobs gap among areas alike in education and housing makes no clear difference.
  • Income goes with less insolvency: the richest fifth of areas has 49% less insolvency than the poorest. Little of that survives once education and housing are held, and not in every check.

Income and inequality

Does inequality raise the risk at the same median income? No. We measured inequality three ways: the Gini coefficient of personal income from tax records (0 is everyone equal, 1 is one person with everything), the share of households on under $800 a week, and how far the mean income runs above the median. At the same median income, more unequal areas have less insolvency, not more: the most unequal fifth of areas has 56% less insolvency than the most equal fifth. That is because unequal areas hold more graduates and home owners. Hold those equal too, and inequality makes no clear difference (about the same, within chance). The Census measure of household income inequality gives the same answer.

At every income level, the most unequal areas have the least insolvency

How unequal incomes are (Gini coefficient) →Median household income ↓Most equal thirdGini under 0.46Middle third0.46 to 0.50Most unequal thirdover 0.50Lower incomesunder $1,492 a week6.11.6× · 18 areas4.91.3× · 47 areas3.81.0× · 45 areasMiddle incomes$1,492 to $1,8954.81.2× · 54 areas3.91.0× · 35 areas2.60.7× · 21 areasHigher incomesover $1,8954.31.1× · 38 areas2.50.6× · 28 areas1.90.5× · 44 areasHow unequal incomes are (Gini coefficient) →Median income ↓Most equalunder 0.46Middle0.46 to 0.50Most unequalover 0.50Lowerunder $1,4926.11.6×4.91.3×3.81.0×Middle$1,492 to $1,8954.81.2×3.91.0×2.60.7×Higherover $1,8954.31.1×2.50.6×1.90.5×
Insolvencies per 10,000 adults a year in each group of areas; colour shows the rate against the national rate of 3.9. Areas split into thirds by Census median household income and by the Gini coefficient of personal income from tax data. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; ABS Personal Income in Australia, 2022–23. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
Median household incomeMost equal third (Gini under 0.46)Middle third (0.46 to 0.50)Most unequal third (over 0.50)
Lower incomes (under $1,492 a week)6.1 (18 areas)4.9 (47 areas)3.8 (45 areas)
Middle incomes ($1,492 to $1,895)4.8 (54 areas)3.9 (35 areas)2.6 (21 areas)
Higher incomes (over $1,895)4.3 (38 areas)2.5 (28 areas)1.9 (44 areas)

Low inequality, in these data, mostly marks areas where nearly everyone earns a similar middle income: outer-suburban estates of young families with mortgages. Those are where insolvency runs highest at any given income. High inequality marks areas with some very high earners, which are also areas of graduates and owners.

Income matters only at the top: the poorer six tenths of areas have much the same rate

0246Australia 3.94.6$1.0k4.7$1.2k5.3$1.3k4.4$1.5k4.5$1.6k4.2$1.7k3.6$1.8k3.6$2.0k2.9$2.1k1.9$2.3kTenths of areas by median household income, lowest first (start of each tenth, $ a week)0246Australia 3.94.6$1.0k4.7$1.2k5.3$1.3k4.4$1.5k4.5$1.6k4.2$1.7k3.6$1.8k3.6$2.0k2.9$2.1k1.9$2.3kTenths by median household income ($ a week)
Insolvencies per 10,000 adults a year, July 2022 to June 2026, in each tenth of areas ranked by Census median household income. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
TenthMedian household income ($ a week)RateOwned outright
1$956 to $1,2114.645%
2$1,217 to $1,3324.739%
3$1,336 to $1,4555.333%
4$1,461 to $1,5554.433%
5$1,555 to $1,6734.531%
6$1,677 to $1,7954.228%
7$1,796 to $1,9413.629%
8$1,955 to $2,0933.626%
9$2,096 to $2,3402.927%
10$2,341 to $3,2721.932%

Crime: violent and non-violent, level and trend

We sorted every recorded offence into violent (homicide, assault, sexual offences, robbery, abduction, threats and harassment) and non-violent (burglary, theft, vehicle theft, fraud, property damage, drugs, public order), the same way in each state, and counted each per 1,000 residents. Growth is the change from 2016–19 to 2023–26. Because states count crime differently, each area is compared with its own state. Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the ACT publish no open suburb-level crime data, so these results cover 265 areas in the other four states. The full mapping is in How we worked it out.

More crime goes with more insolvency, but most of the gap is the area’s profile; rising crime goes with no extra insolvency

  • On its own
  • With the rest held equal: raises the risk
  • No clear effect
  • 95% range
halfsame1.5 timesdouble3 timesInsolvency in the top fifth of areas against the bottom fifthViolent crimeRaisesNon-violent crimeRaisesViolent crime risingNo clear effectNon-violent crime risingNo clear effecthalfsame1.5 timesdouble3 timesInsolvency in the top fifth of areas against the bottom fifthViolent crime · RaisesNon-violent crime · RaisesViolent crime rising · No clear effectNon-violent crime rising · No clear effect
Recorded crime per 1,000 residents, July 2022 to June 2026, against each state’s average; growth from 2016–19 to 2023–26, against each state’s change. 265 areas in four states. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Queensland Police Service and South Australia Police. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
Crime measureTop fifth against bottom fifthOn its ownRest held equalAll four togetherp
Violent crimeviolent crime 1.9 times its state's average against 0.5 times2.3 times the rate1.3 times the rate1.1 times the rate0.002
Non-violent crimenon-violent crime 1.7 times its state's average against 0.5 times1.6 times the rate1.2 times the rate1.2 times the rate0.002
Violent crime risingviolent crime up 24% against down 17%, beside its state's change1.2 times the rate1.1 times the rateabout the same0.220
Non-violent crime risingnon-violent crime up 21% against down 16%, beside its state's change8% lowerabout the sameabout the same0.497

Crime travels with the things that drive insolvency: violent crime is highest where incomes are low, social housing is common and one-parent families are many. Once those are held equal, a small link remains. It adds nothing to predictions for areas the model has not seen (83% of the differences explained without crime, 83% with it), and with violent and non-violent crime in together, neither stands out.

The extra risk that goes with crime is clear in New South Wales only

halfsamedouble4 timesInsolvency in the top fifth of areas against the bottom fifthViolent crimeNew South Wales (89 areas)RaisesVictoria (66 areas)No clear effectQueensland (82 areas)No clear effectSouth Australia (28 areas)No clear effectNon-violent crimeNew South Wales (89 areas)RaisesVictoria (66 areas)No clear effectQueensland (82 areas)No clear effectSouth Australia (28 areas)No clear effecthalfsamedouble4 timesInsolvency in the top fifth of areas against the bottom fifthViolent crimeNew South Wales (89 areas) · RaisesVictoria (66 areas) · No clear effectQueensland (82 areas) · No clear effectSouth Australia (28 areas) · No clear effectNon-violent crimeNew South Wales (89 areas) · RaisesVictoria (66 areas) · No clear effectQueensland (82 areas) · No clear effectSouth Australia (28 areas) · No clear effect
Each state on its own, holding median income, education, housing and family make-up. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Queensland Police Service and South Australia Police. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
Measure and stateAreasOn its ownProfile held equal95% range
Violent crime, NSW893.2 times the rate1.9 times the rate1.5× to 2.4×
Violent crime, Vic662.1 times the rate7% lower40% lower to 1.4×
Violent crime, Qld822.0 times the rateabout the same16% lower to 1.3×
Violent crime, SA282.4 times the rate1.4 times the rate12% lower to 2.2×
Non-violent crime, NSW892.1 times the rate1.6 times the rate1.2× to 2.1×
Non-violent crime, Vic66about the sameabout the same39% lower to 1.5×
Non-violent crime, Qld821.4 times the rate1.1 times the rate8% lower to 1.3×
Non-violent crime, SA281.6 times the rate1.4 times the rate6% lower to 2.0×

Which comes first?

If crime drove insolvency, areas where crime was high or rising should see insolvency rise afterwards. We tested both directions, holding each measure’s own starting point and the area’s profile.

Neither crime nor insolvency clearly comes first; the one clear signal runs from insolvency to later non-violent crime

20% lesssame25% more50% moreThe later measure: areas highest on the earlier one against the lowestViolent crime first, insolvency laterWithin chanceInsolvency first, violent crime laterWithin chanceNon-violent crime first, insolvency laterWithin chanceInsolvency first, non-violent crime laterClear20% lesssame25% more50% moreThe later measure: areas highest on the earlier one against the lowestViolent crime first, insolvency later · Within chanceInsolvency first, violent crime later · Within chanceNon-violent crime first, insolvency later · Within chanceInsolvency first, non-violent crime later · Clear
Four states. Each test holds the later measure’s own starting level and the area’s Census profile. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Queensland Police Service and South Australia Police. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
TestSize (top fifth against bottom, or per 10% rise)p
Earlier violent crime, later insolvency (2016–19 to 2022–26)10% more0.211
Earlier insolvency, later violent crime (2017–19 to 2023–26)15% more0.067
Earlier non-violent crime, later insolvency9% more0.101
Earlier insolvency, later non-violent crime25% more0.016
Violent crime growth first, insolvency growth after (NSW and Qld, 2007–16)4% more0.910
Insolvency growth first, violent crime growth after (NSW and Qld, 2007–16)-0.03 log points0.993
Non-violent crime growth first, insolvency growth after (NSW and Qld, 2007–16)6% less0.983
Insolvency growth first, non-violent crime growth after (NSW and Qld, 2007–16)-0.01 log points0.999
Year by year: violent crime up 10%, insolvency next year+1.3%0.857
Year by year: non-violent crime up 10%, insolvency next year+0.5%0.611
Year by year: insolvency up 10%, violent crime next year+0.1%0.240
Year by year: insolvency up 10%, non-violent crime next year+0.1%0.634
  • Levels. Areas with the most violent crime in 2016–19 did not see insolvency rise more by 2022–26 (10% more, within chance), except in New South Wales (29% more). Areas with the most insolvency in 2017–19 saw non-violent crime rise a little more by 2023–26 (25% more): the one signal that held, and it runs from insolvency to crime.
  • Year by year (2017 to 2026): a 10% rise in an area’s violent crime was followed by 1.3% more insolvency the next year, and a 10% rise in non-violent crime by 0.5% more, both within chance.
  • Before the pandemic (New South Wales and Queensland, 2007–16): crime growth did not come before insolvency growth, nor the reverse.

So crime goes with insolvency because both follow the same disadvantage. There is no sign that rising crime pushes insolvency up. A year’s insolvencies in one area are few, so these tests can miss a small effect; timing is evidence, not proof.

When risks stack up

Four simple flags, each set against the national figure, sort areas well. The more flags, the higher the rate.

Each extra flag adds risk: areas with all four have 1.7 times the national rate, areas with none about half

  • High unemployment: above the national rate of 5.1%
  • Few graduates: fewer adults with a degree than the national 26%
  • Many renters: more homes rented than the national 31%
  • Above-average crime: more recorded crime per resident than the state’s average
0×0.5×1×1.5×2×0.5×0 flags39 areas0.8×1 flag72 areas1.1×2 flags80 areas1.2×3 flags51 areas1.7×4 flags23 areasTimes the national rate of insolvency0×0.5×1×1.5×2×0.5×0 flags39 areas0.8×1 flag72 areas1.1×2 flags80 areas1.2×3 flags51 areas1.7×4 flags23 areasTimes the national rate of insolvency
265 areas in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, where crime can be measured. Unemployment, degrees and renting from the 2021 Census; crime July 2022 to June 2026. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Queensland Police Service and South Australia Police. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
FlagsAreasAdults (million)RateTimes nationalAgainst its state
0 of 4392.72.10.550.57
1 of 4724.03.10.800.79
2 of 4805.84.21.081.08
3 of 4513.84.71.221.14
4 of 4231.56.81.741.51
0 of 3, every state (no crime flag)483.22.10.540.59
1 of 3, every state (no crime flag)1448.33.50.890.92
2 of 3, every state (no crime flag)987.14.31.111.10
3 of 3, every state (no crime flag)402.76.21.601.38

Renting is a risk only alongside few graduates; few graduates is the flag that matters most

  • Flag present
  • Absent
0×0.5×1×1.5×2×Times the national rateHighunemploymentFewgraduatesManyrentersMorecrime1.7×23 areas1.5×16 areas1.4×10 areas1.3×33 areas1.3×15 areas1.2×16 areas1.1×5 areas1.0×54 areas0.8×11 areas0.7×10 areas0.7×15 areas0.6×3 areas0.5×39 areas0.5×15 areas0×0.5×1×1.5×2×Times the national rateJobsDegreeRentCrime1.7×1.5×1.4×1.3×1.3×1.2×1.1×1.0×0.8×0.7×0.7×0.6×0.5×0.5×
Every combination of the four flags held by at least three areas. Jobs: high unemployment. Degree: few graduates. Rent: many renters. Crime: above-average crime. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Queensland Police Service and South Australia Police. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
FlagsAreasAdults (million)RateTimes nationalAgainst its stateExamples
High unemployment + Few graduates + Many renters + Above-average crime231.56.81.741.51Browns Plains, Beenleigh, St Marys
Few graduates + Many renters + Above-average crime160.95.81.491.29Penrith, Central Highlands (Qld), Townsville
High unemployment + Few graduates + Many renters100.95.41.391.20Springfield - Redbank, North Lakes, Strathpine
Few graduates + Above-average crime331.95.21.341.36Tamworth - Gunnedah, Lithgow - Mudgee, Mackay
High unemployment + Few graduates + Above-average crime151.05.01.301.29Rockhampton, Wyong, Mildura
High unemployment + Few graduates161.54.81.251.29Narangba - Burpengary, Bundaberg, Ipswich Hinterland
Few graduates + Many renters50.24.21.070.79Bowen Basin - North, Port Douglas - Daintree, Sandgate
Few graduates542.63.70.950.93Jimboomba, Granite Belt, Biloela
High unemployment + Many renters111.13.10.810.82Wyndham, Sunnybank, Mt Gravatt
High unemployment + Many renters + Above-average crime101.02.90.730.75Blacktown, Parramatta, Maribyrnong
Many renters + Above-average crime151.12.60.660.66Nundah, Newcastle, Brisbane Inner - North
High unemployment30.32.20.570.63Rocklea - Acacia Ridge, Manningham - West, Monash
None392.72.10.550.57Blacktown - North, Wynnum - Manly, Queanbeyan
Many renters151.11.90.490.49Holland Park - Yeronga, Carlingford, Brisbane Inner - East

Few graduates is the flag that does most of the work: with it, areas run at 1.3 times the national rate; without it, 0.6 times. Many renters, on its own, marks low-risk inner-city areas; with few graduates, it marks the highest-risk ones. Above-average crime adds a little at each step, as the earlier section found.

What a decision tree finds

We also let a shallow decision tree pick the questions that best split high-insolvency areas from low ones within each state, from the full Census profile. It asks about degrees first, then the share of young adults, and how evenly incomes are spread. Its riskiest group, areas where under 24% hold a degree, over 26% are aged 18 to 34 and incomes are evenly spread (Gini 0.42 or less), runs at 1.8 times the national rate (24 areas such as Whittlesea - Wallan, Casey - South, Melton - Bacchus Marsh); its safest, 0.4 times.

Three questions sort areas from 0.4 to 1.8 times the national rate

Each question splits the areas: yes goes up, no goes downWhere the areas landyesnoyesnoyesnoyesnoyesnoyesnoyesnoUnder 52%finished Year 12?Incomes evenlyspread (Gini 0.42or less)?Under 26% aged 18to 34?Incomes evenlyspread (Gini 0.44or less)?Median income$2,312 a week orless?Incomes evenlyspread (Gini 0.48or less)?Under 24% hold adegree?87 areas · 3.7m adultsOnkaparinga1.2×22 areas · 1.3m adultsGosford0.8×24 areas · 1.9m adultsWhittlesea - Wallan1.8×65 areas · 4.6m adultsWanneroo1.4×15 areas · 1.2m adultsWyndham1.1×38 areas · 2.8m adultsGeelong0.7×55 areas · 4.2m adultsSydney Inner City0.6×24 areas · 1.5m adultsBoroondara0.4×national rateUnder 24% hold a degree · over 26% aged 18 to 34 ·incomes evenly spread (Gini 0.42 or less)1.8× · 24 areasUnder 24% hold a degree · over 26% aged 18 to 34 ·incomes unevenly spread (Gini over 0.42)1.4× · 65 areasUnder 24% hold a degree · under 26% aged 18 to 34· under 52% finished Year 121.2× · 87 areasOver 24% hold a degree · incomes evenly spread(Gini 0.44 or less)1.1× · 15 areasUnder 24% hold a degree · under 26% aged 18 to 34· over 52% finished Year 120.8× · 22 areasOver 24% hold a degree · incomes fairly even (Gini0.44 to 0.48)0.7× · 38 areasOver 24% hold a degree · incomes unevenly spread(Gini over 0.48) · median income $2,312 a week orless0.6× · 55 areasOver 24% hold a degree · incomes unevenly spread(Gini over 0.48) · median income over $2,312 aweek0.4× · 24 areas
A decision tree, three questions deep, grown on all 330 areas to separate high and low insolvency within each state; each question is the one that best splits the counts. It explains 63% of the differences between areas it was not grown on. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; ABS Personal Income in Australia, 2022–23. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
Group (the answers that lead to it)AreasAdults (million)RateTimes nationalAgainst its stateExamples
Under 24% hold a degree · over 26% aged 18 to 34 · incomes evenly spread (Gini 0.42 or less)241.97.01.791.76Whittlesea - Wallan, Casey - South, Melton - Bacchus Marsh
Under 24% hold a degree · over 26% aged 18 to 34 · incomes unevenly spread (Gini over 0.42)654.65.31.351.32Wanneroo, Tullamarine - Broadmeadows, Dandenong
Under 24% hold a degree · under 26% aged 18 to 34 · under 52% finished Year 12873.74.51.151.13Onkaparinga, Wyong, Lake Macquarie - East
Over 24% hold a degree · incomes evenly spread (Gini 0.44 or less)151.24.11.061.15Wyndham, Blacktown - North, Blacktown
Under 24% hold a degree · under 26% aged 18 to 34 · over 52% finished Year 12221.33.20.810.74Gosford, Mornington Peninsula, Yarra Ranges
Over 24% hold a degree · incomes fairly even (Gini 0.44 to 0.48)382.82.90.750.77Geelong, Newcastle, Knox
Over 24% hold a degree · incomes unevenly spread (Gini over 0.48) · median income $2,312 a week or less554.22.20.560.59Sydney Inner City, Stirling, Melbourne City
Over 24% hold a degree · incomes unevenly spread (Gini over 0.48) · median income over $2,312 a week241.51.50.390.38Boroondara, Warringah, Baulkham Hills

Seven kinds of area

We grouped the 330 areas into seven kinds with similar Census profiles (income, inequality, unemployment, education, housing, family make-up, age, remoteness and flats), then named each by what sets it apart. The grouping uses no crime, ethnicity or birthplace data.

Where each kind of area is

Choose a type to light up its areas. Hover, tap or tab to any area for its name, rate and type.

Show where each type is
  • The chosen type
  • Other types
  • Too few adults

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Area types from a grouping of the 2021 Census profile of each SA3 (k-means, seven groups). Sources: ABS Census 2021; ABS Personal Income in Australia, 2022–23; ABS boundaries. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.

Working suburbs and regional cities carry the most risk; professional and inner-city areas the least

0×0.5×1×1.5×national rateWorking suburbs and regional cities1.4×Remote towns and mining regions1.2×Older regional and coastal areas1.1×Outer-suburban mortgage belts1.0×Remote communities0.8×Inner-city apartment areas0.6×Established professional suburbs0.5×0×0.5×1×1.5×national rateWorking suburbs and regional cities1.4×Remote towns and mining regions1.2×Older regional and coastal areas1.1×Outer-suburban mortgage belts1.0×Remote communities0.8×Inner-city apartment areas0.6×Established professional suburbs0.5×
Insolvencies per 10,000 adults a year, July 2022 to June 2026, against the national rate. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021; ABS Personal Income in Australia, 2022–23. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
Area typeAreasPeople (million)RateTimes nationalAgainst its state
Working suburbs and regional cities677.065.51.411.35
Remote towns and mining regions110.354.71.211.23
Older regional and coastal areas1125.934.41.121.09
Outer-suburban mortgage belts514.713.80.981.06
Remote communities50.113.10.790.80
Inner-city apartment areas333.022.30.590.59
Established professional suburbs514.171.90.490.51

Working suburbs and regional cities 1.4×

Middle-income suburbs and regional cities: more renters (34% of homes), more one-parent families (19%) and fewer graduates (20%) than average, with incomes evenly spread (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
1.4× the national rate
People
7.1 million (28%), 67 areas
Median income
$1,604 a week
Degree
20% of adults
Renting
34% of homes
Mortgaged
37%
Unemployment
6.1%
One-parent families
19%

For example: Geelong, Tullamarine - Broadmeadows, Dandenong, Townsville, Fairfield.

What a lender should do

  • Watch this share of your book first: set early-arrears triggers here.
  • Plan collections and hardship staff for it: it is the largest higher-risk group, home to more than a quarter of Australians.
  • Lead marketing with affordability and hardship support rather than credit limits.
  • Budget portfolio losses for this mix; price each borrower on verified income and expenses.

Remote towns and mining regions 1.2×

Mining regions and remote towns such as the Pilbara, the Goldfields, the Bowen Basin, Darwin and Alice Springs: incomes above average ($2,153 a week), many renters (48%) and many recent movers (51% moved in five years) (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
1.2× the national rate
People
0.4 million (1%), 11 areas
Median income
$2,153 a week
Degree
16% of adults
Renting
48% of homes
Mortgaged
29%
Unemployment
4.2%
One-parent families
17%

For example: Darwin Suburbs, Alice Springs, Goldfields, Palmerston, Bowen Basin - North.

What a lender should do

  • Check how steady an applicant’s income is, not only how high: mining and seasonal work can swing.
  • Keep contact details current; people move often here.
  • Watch concentration: one industry’s downturn moves a whole region.

Older regional and coastal areas 1.1×

Country towns and coastal areas: lower incomes ($1,360 a week), more people aged 65 and over (24%) and more homes owned outright (40%) (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
1.1× the national rate
People
5.9 million (23%), 112 areas
Median income
$1,360 a week
Degree
16% of adults
Renting
25% of homes
Mortgaged
32%
Unemployment
4.7%
One-parent families
16%

For example: Gosford, Mornington Peninsula, Lake Macquarie - East, Mandurah, Bunbury.

What a lender should do

  • A little above average: monitor rather than act.
  • Many borrowers live on fixed incomes; check affordability on them.
  • Collections need regional reach, by phone and online.

Outer-suburban mortgage belts 1.0×

Fast-growing outer suburbs of families: the most mortgaged homes (48%), the most couples with children (51%), incomes above average and evenly spread (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
1.0× the national rate
People
4.7 million (19%), 51 areas
Median income
$2,031 a week
Degree
25% of adults
Renting
23% of homes
Mortgaged
48%
Unemployment
4.8%
One-parent families
15%

For example: Wyndham, Whittlesea - Wallan, Casey - South, Wanneroo, Melton - Bacchus Marsh.

What a lender should do

  • About average today, but the most mortgaged: stress-test this share of your book for higher rates.
  • Watch arrears on cards and personal loans here too, not only on home loans.
  • Keep hardship options easy to find when rates rise.

Remote communities 0.8×

Remote and very remote regions such as the Kimberley, Arnhem Land and Katherine: high unemployment (9.8%) and much social housing (37% of homes) (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
0.8× the national rate
People
0.1 million (under 1%), 5 areas
Median income
$1,582 a week
Degree
11% of adults
Renting
62% of homes
Mortgaged
14%
Unemployment
9.8%
One-parent families
24%

For example: Kimberley, Far North, Katherine, Daly - Tiwi - West Arnhem, East Arnhem.

What a lender should do

  • Low insolvency here does not mean low hardship: people with few assets rarely file for bankruptcy.
  • Offer collections and hardship help through local and in-language channels.
  • Never use this type, or remoteness, to decline or price a person.

Inner-city apartment areas 0.6×

Inner-city apartment areas: young graduates (47% hold a degree), many private renters (45%) and high, unequal incomes. More than half (56%) moved in the past five years (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
0.6× the national rate
People
3.0 million (12%), 33 areas
Median income
$2,165 a week
Degree
47% of adults
Renting
49% of homes
Mortgaged
26%
Unemployment
5.1%
One-parent families
12%

For example: Sydney Inner City, Melbourne City, Strathfield - Burwood - Ashfield, Ryde - Hunters Hill, Kogarah - Rockdale.

What a lender should do

  • Low risk despite renting: education carries it.
  • People move often: keep contact details current.
  • Standard collections are enough.

Established professional suburbs 0.5×

Established suburbs of graduates (39%) and owners, with high and unequal incomes ($2,109 a week median) (ABS Census 2021).

Insolvency
0.5× the national rate
People
4.2 million (16%), 51 areas
Median income
$2,109 a week
Degree
39% of adults
Renting
29% of homes
Mortgaged
34%
Unemployment
4.5%
One-parent families
14%

For example: Stirling, Monash, Boroondara, Glen Eira, Warringah.

What a lender should do

  • The lowest risk: lighter collections staffing will do.
  • Competition for these borrowers is fiercest; price on the person, not the postcode.
  • Still assess every applicant: a low area rate says little about one household.
Show each type’s full profile
Area typeTimes nationalMedian household incomeGiniUnemploymentDegreePrivate rentingSocial housingMortgagedOwned outrightOne-parent65 and overRemoteness (0 to 4)Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents
Working suburbs and regional cities1.41$1,6040.446.1%20%28%5.1%37%28%19%16%0.23.3%
Remote towns and mining regions1.21$2,1530.444.2%16%37%10.4%29%18%17%9%2.616.1%
Older regional and coastal areas1.12$1,3600.504.7%16%21%3.4%32%40%16%24%1.15.0%
Outer-suburban mortgage belts0.98$2,0310.444.8%25%21%2.1%48%27%15%14%0.11.9%
Remote communities0.79$1,5820.519.8%11%24%36.8%14%15%24%8%3.651.8%
Inner-city apartment areas0.59$2,1650.535.1%47%45%4.0%26%23%12%13%0.00.9%
Established professional suburbs0.49$2,1090.524.5%39%26%2.8%34%35%14%18%0.00.9%

Watch a portfolio, never decline a person

Area profiles fall harder on some groups than others. A model of the Census profile above, with every protected attribute and the age mix left out, still sorts people by them, because where people live does. If a lender screened out the tenth of adults living in the areas that model marks worst, it would take in 17% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents.

A suburb screen would fall on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents 1.7 times as hard as on everyone else

0%5%10%15%20%all adults: 9%All adults9%Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanderresidents17%People with a disability needing help10%People born overseas9%People aged 65 and over7%0%5%10%15%20%all adults: 9%All adults9%Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents17%People with a disability needing help10%People born overseas9%People aged 65 and over7%
The tenth of adults living in the areas an area score marks worst: a model of the Census profile, with no protected attribute and no age measure in it. Sources: AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population; ABS Census 2021. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
GroupShare living in the screened tenth
All adults9.5%
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents16.6%
People with a disability needing help9.9%
People born overseas9.1%
People aged 65 and over7.3%

The three higher-risk types hold 53% of residents but 73% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents

  • All residents
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents
0.5%1%5%10%25%50%Share of each group living in this type of areaWorking suburbs and regional cities1.4× riskRemote towns and mining regions1.2× riskOlder regional and coastal areas1.1× riskOuter-suburban mortgage belts1.0× riskRemote communities0.8× riskInner-city apartment areas0.6× riskEstablished professional suburbs0.5× risk0.5%1%5%10%25%50%Share of each group living in this type of areaWorking suburbs and regional cities · 1.4× riskRemote towns and mining regions · 1.2× riskOlder regional and coastal areas · 1.1× riskOuter-suburban mortgage belts · 1.0× riskRemote communities · 0.8× riskInner-city apartment areas · 0.6× riskEstablished professional suburbs · 0.5× risk
Sources: ABS Census 2021; AFSA personal insolvency statistics by region (data.gov.au), July 2022 to June 2026; ABS estimated resident population. Data retrieved 30 October 2026.
Show the figures
Area typeShare of all residentsShare of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residentsTimes national insolvency
Working suburbs and regional cities27.9%29.4%1.41
Remote towns and mining regions1.4%7.1%1.21
Older regional and coastal areas23.4%36.7%1.12
Outer-suburban mortgage belts18.6%11.2%0.98
Remote communities0.5%7.4%0.79
Inner-city apartment areas11.9%3.5%0.59
Established professional suburbs16.5%4.8%0.49

A lender may

  • Track how much of a book sits in higher-risk area types, and watch it change.
  • Use area rates in portfolio provisions and stress tests.
  • Plan collections and hardship staff by region.
  • Check that marketing and approvals do not leave out areas or groups without a credit reason.

A lender may not

  • Decline, price or limit a person because of their suburb or postcode.
  • Use recorded crime in any decision about a person.
  • Use protected attributes, or stand-ins such as an area’s ethnic, birthplace, language or age mix.
  • Treat an area’s rate as a person’s chance of default: even in the highest-rate area, 12.1 in 10,000 adults a year is 0.12% of them.

Responsible lending law requires an assessment of each person’s requirements, objectives and verified financial situation. Federal and state anti-discrimination laws cover credit, and a rule that looks neutral, such as a postcode cut-off, can be indirect discrimination if it falls harder on a protected group and is not reasonable. Take legal advice before area data touches any decision.

What a lender should do with this

  1. Know your mix. Tag each borrower’s area with its type and its rate. Report each month what share of your book sits in the higher-risk types (Working suburbs and regional cities, Remote towns and mining regions, Older regional and coastal areas), and set early-arrears triggers there first.
  2. Staff for it. Put collections and hardship staff where the higher-risk types are, and give remote regions phone, online and local channels.
  3. Stress-test the mortgage belts. They sit at the national average today but hold the most mortgaged homes; model what higher rates would do to that share of your book.
  4. Market fairly. Aim offers by product need and affordability, and check that campaigns neither skip nor single out areas without a credit reason.
  5. Decide on the person. Assess verified income, expenses and repayment history. Never decline, price or limit anyone because of their suburb, and never use crime or an area’s ethnic or age mix.

Sources

  1. Regional personal insolvency time series per quarter, SA3, September 2007 to June 2026. Australian Financial Security Authority, on data.gov.au, CC BY 2.5 AU, retrieved 30 October 2026.
  2. Regional population, 2024–25: estimated resident population, 2001 to 2025, SA2 and above. Australian Bureau of Statistics, CC BY 4.0, retrieved 30 October 2026.
  3. Census 2021 DataPacks: General Community Profile (SA3, SA2, suburbs and localities) and Time Series Profile (SA3). Australian Bureau of Statistics, CC BY 4.0, retrieved 11 and 30 October 2026.
  4. Personal Income in Australia, 2022–23: Tables 1 and 3, income and its distribution by geography. Australian Bureau of Statistics, CC BY 4.0, retrieved 30 October 2026.
  5. Australian Statistical Geography Standard, Edition 3: allocation files, SA3 boundaries and mesh block counts. Australian Bureau of Statistics, CC BY 4.0, retrieved 11 and 30 October 2026.
  6. Recorded crime: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, by suburb (CC BY); Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, by suburb (CC BY 4.0); Queensland Police Service, by police division (CC BY 3.0 AU); South Australia Police, by suburb (CC BY). Retrieved 30 October 2026.
  7. Every file, with its address, licence, the day it was retrieved and its SHA-256: the method’s data and licences.