Research

Small lending in Australia — October 2026

The figures a lender’s board asks for first, each with its date and source. Public figures only, and no forecasts.

· 4 min read

General information, not legal or financial advice.

  • Cash rate target 4.60% 4.10% in Apr 2025, 3.60% from Aug 2025, 4.60% from 30 Sep 2026. RBA, decision of 29 September 2026
  • Inflation, year to August 4.0% Up from 3.5% in July. Trimmed mean 3.6%. The RBA’s target is 2 to 3%. ABS monthly CPI, released 30 September 2026
  • Unemployment, August 4.6% Up 0.2 points. Underutilisation 10.8%. Seasonally adjusted. ABS Labour Force, released 24 September 2026
  • Housing loans in early arrears 0.54% Deposit-takers’ housing loans 30 to 89 days past due, June quarter. Non-performing: 1.01%. APRA property exposures, 17 September 2026
  • Borrowers short of cash About 2% Of variable-rate owner-occupiers: income short of scheduled mortgage repayments and essential expenses. RBA Financial Stability Review, 1 October 2026
  • Household debt 178.4% Of annual disposable income, June quarter. 177.2% in March. RBA table E2, 25 September 2026

Each figure is the latest published on 4 October 2026.

Rates and prices

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate target to 4.60% on 29 September 2026: 4 rises this year, 1 percentage point in all, after three cuts in 2025. The Board said it would do what it considers necessary to bring inflation back to target, “including increasing the cash rate target further if needed” (statement, 29 September 2026).

Consumer prices rose 4.0% in the year to August, and 3.6% on the trimmed mean (ABS). Since November 2025 the monthly CPI has been the ABS’s headline measure, and a quarter’s figure is the average of its three months (ABS, 25 November 2025).

Jobs

Unemployment rose 0.2 points to 4.6% in August. Underutilisation held at 10.8%, underemployment fell to 6.2% and participation rose to 67.1%. Employment grew by 39,500 people (ABS Labour Force, August 2026).

Households

The Reserve Bank estimates that about 2% of variable-rate owner-occupiers are short of cash, a share that rose a little in the first half of 2026. The share of housing loans more than three months behind has risen a little this year but remains around pre-pandemic levels; the share in formal hardship arrangements has risen but remains low; and enquiries to the National Debt Helpline rose modestly in the first half of the year (Financial Stability Review, October 2026).

Housing loans held by banks, building societies and credit unions that were 30 to 89 days past due were 0.54% in the June quarter, against 0.66% a year earlier, and non-performing loans 1.01%, against 1.04% (APRA, 17 September 2026).

New personal fixed-term loans were $9.7 billion in the June quarter, up 7.1% on a year. Car loans fell 5.0% to $4.7 billion; other personal loans rose 21.6% to $5.0 billion (ABS Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026).

What ASIC did, October 2025 to September 2026

  • Small amount lenders. A small amount lender was ordered to pay $3.5 million for unfair terms in more than 47,000 of its contracts, which let it take repayments without notice (26-203MR, 2 September 2026). ASIC stopped another lender offering its loans of up to $2,000 until it rewrote its target market determination, and lifted the order eight days later (25-284MR, 25 November 2025).
  • Lending without a licence. Two companies and their directors were ordered to pay $7 million for credit activity without a licence and prohibited fees (26-078MR, 17 April 2026).
  • Hardship. A major bank was ordered to pay $26 million for failing to answer over 200 hardship requests in time (26-107MR, 27 May 2026), and a second major bank $40 million for failing to respond to hardship notices from 488 customers (25-314MR, 19 December 2025). ASIC’s priorities for 2026–27 name better outcomes for people in financial difficulty (26-232MR, 30 September 2026).
  • Buy now pay later. Providers have needed a credit licence since 10 June 2025; ASIC received six applications during the transition (REP 825, November 2025). Its plan for 2026–27 says it will assess their compliance with credit laws (26-200MR, 26 August 2026).

We found no ASIC report on small amount lending in the period; the latest is REP 805, March 2025.

Next releases

  • Labour Force, September: 15 October 2026 (ABS).
  • CPI, September and the September quarter: 28 October 2026 (ABS).
  • Statement on Monetary Policy: 3 November 2026 (RBA).
  • Lending Indicators, September quarter: 11 November 2026 (ABS).
  • Financial Stability Review: 25 March 2027 (RBA).

Sources

  1. Reserve Bank of Australia: cash rate target; monetary policy decision, 29 September 2026; Financial Stability Review, October 2026; table E2, household finances.
  2. Australian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, August 2026; Labour Force, August 2026; Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026.
  3. APRA, Quarterly ADI property exposures, June 2026.
  4. ASIC media releases and reports as linked above, read 4 October 2026.